THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE
“VERY NICE. IT’S A LITTLE GREASY…BUT VERY NICE. CRUMBLE SOME CRACKERS INTO IT SHELL, THAT WILL HELP TO ABSORB THE GREASE…” Peter Falk’s line from the 1979 classic movie “The In-Laws” is good advice about soup…but doesn’t help us much when it comes to absorbing the high price of oil, a greasy topic that continues to permeate financial headlines.
And last week was no exception, with oil prices continuing to march ever higher, despite an announcement early last week by OPEC member Saudi Arabia that they will increase oil production in the near future. They are concerned that the high price of oil will lead to lower demand and a turn toward alternative energy sources. And Friday’s news didn’t help, with a strike at a Chevron plant in war-torn Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producing nation. Additionally, Israel conducted a military operation for preparedness in case of a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear plants – which all served to push oil prices higher still. High oil prices are inflationary – so if the march higher in oil prices continues, both the Stock and Bond markets will suffer…and even crumbled crackers won’t help sop up the mess.
But Bonds did manage to find some improvement last week, helping home loan rates get better by about .125%. Negative economic news, including soft housing numbers, weakness from the manufacturing sector and more write-downs announced by financial giant Citigroup all played a hand – causing money to flow out of Stocks and over into Bonds, which helped prices improve.
WANT TO HELP YOUR CAR’S MAINTENANCE BUDGET IMPROVE? YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED TO LEARN HOW MUCH YOU CAN SAVE…READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW!
Forecast for the Week
The coming week is chock full of economic reports that will likely have a big influence on the financial markets. We start off on Tuesday with a report on Consumer Confidence, and also the beginning of Fed meetings which will culminate in a Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Wednesday afternoon at 2:15pm ET. It is widely believed that the Fed will keep the Fed Funds Rate at 2%…but what will be most interesting is the wording of their carefully crafted Policy Statement. If it gives hints of their intent to hike rates in the near future to help fight inflation, it could actually be good news for Bonds and home loan rates.
A look at sales numbers in the new and existing housing markets will come Wednesday and Thursday, and Friday will wrap up the week with a bang as the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data will be released. Since this will be following the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday – will the Fed look smart if they’ve held rates steady, or perhaps come under criticism if the inflation numbers are super-heated? Could be a greasy few days for the Fed, so stay tuned.
Remember that when Bond pricing moves higher, home loan rates move lower – and then take a look at the chart below. You can see how in recent days, Bonds have moved higher, but are now battling an overhead “ceiling” of technical resistance. If Bonds and home loan rates are to improve in the near future, it will take some very Bond-friendly news to help crash through the ceiling that has stopped progress in its tracks for the time being.
The Mortgage Market View…
TIME FOR A CHANGE…OR NOT?
The rising cost of crude oil has everyone talking about gas prices at the pump… but what about the actual oil in your engine? Are you spending too much on oil by changing it too often?
Most of us probably think a car’s oil needs to be changed every 3,000 miles. But that’s an old mechanics tale these days. Did you know that many car manuals now actually recommend changing the oil every 5,000, 7,500 or even 10,000 miles? That means you may be changing your oil twice or even three times as often as you need to! In fact, a recent study in California indicated that 73 percent of Californians change their oil more frequently than recommended by the manufacturers.
So how often should you change your oil?
The fact is, oil changes should be determined by what, how, and where you drive. If you have a newer car with little or no engine wear, you can probably go 7,500 miles between oil changes. And even if you have a slightly older car, but drive under ideal conditions such as predominantly highway, you can go a similar distance before changing.
Of course, many of us actually don’t drive under “ideal” conditions…if you make many short trips, endure lots of stop-and-go traffic, drive on gravel or dusty roads – then you might need to change your oil more frequently. So how do you know – and take advantage of saving money by only changing oil when it’s really needed?
Technology to the rescue
There are a few ways you can actually eliminate the guesswork. If you have a newer car, it may have a built-in sensor that estimates oil life based on engine running time, miles driven, outside temperature, coolant temperature and other operating conditions. When the indicator light comes on, it’s time to change the oil. It’s that simple.
Another idea is to purchase an oil monitoring sensor, such as the IntelliStick. These sensors are used in place of your car’s original dipstick and provide you with real-time, accurate information about the true condition of your oil. Better still, these sensors often have a transponder built into them so you can quickly and easily check the condition of your oil at any time using a cell phone, PDA or computer with Bluetooth connectivity…now that’s really going high tech.
Bottom line – dollars spent on oil changes add up fast. Especially with the increasing price of oil, it pays to be smart, check the manufacturer’s recommendations…and not let too-frequent oil changes cost you!
Ernest Tepman
President
The OCD Group Inc.
Los Angeles: 800-963-4623
San Diego: 877-863-4623
E-Mail: marketupdate@theocdgroup.com
Gas Savings
We are also paying higher, up to $3.50 per gallon. But my line of work is in petroleum for about 31 years now, so here are some tricks to get more of your money’s worth for every gallon..
Here at the Kinder Morgan Pipeline where I work in San Jose, CA we deliver about 4 million gallons in a 24-hour period thru the pipeline. One day is diesel the next day is jet fuel, and gasoline, regular and premium grades. We have 34-storage tanks here with a total capacity of 16,800,000 gallons.
Only buy or fill up your car or truck in the early morning when the ground temperature is still cold. Remember that all service stations have their storage tanks buried below ground. The colder the ground the more dense the gasoline, when it gets warmer gasoline expands, so buying in the afternoon or in the evening….your gallon is not exactly a gallon. In the petroleum business, the specific gravity and the temperature of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, ethanol and other petroleum products plays an important role. A 1-degree rise in temperature is a big deal for this business. But the service stations do not have temperature compensation at the pumps.
When you’re filling up do not squeeze the trigger of the nozzle to a fast mode. If you look you will see that the trigger has three (3) stages: low, middle, and high. In slow mode you should be pumping on low speed, thereby minimizing the vapors that are created while you are pumping. All hoses at the pump have a vapor return. If you are pumping on the fast rate, some other liquid that goes to your tank becomes vapor. Those vapors are being sucked up and back into the underground storage tank so you’re getting less worth for your money.
One of the most important tips is to fill up when your gas tank is HALF FULL or HALF EMPTY. The reason for this is, the more gas you have in your tank the less air occupying its empty space. Gasoline evaporates faster than you can imagine. Gasoline storage tanks have an internal floating roof. This roof serves as zero clearance between the gas and the atmosphere, so it minimizes the evaporation. Unlike service stations, here where I work, every truck that we load is temperature compensated so that every gallon is actually the exact amount.
Another reminder, if there is a gasoline truck pumping into the storage tanks when you stop to buy gas, DO NOT fill up - most likely the gasoline is being stirred up as the gas is being delivered, and you might pick up some f the dirt that normally settles on the bottom. Hope this will help you get the most value for your money.
DO SHARE THESE TIPS WITH OTHERS!
WHERE TO BUY USA GAS, THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO KNOW. READ ON
Gas rationing in the 80′s worked even though we grumbled about it. It might even be good for us! The Saudis are boycotting American goods. We should return the favor. An interesting thought is to boycott their GAS.
Every time you fill up the car, you can avoid putting more money into the coffers of Saudi Arabia. Just buy from gas companies that don’t import their oil from the Saudis.
Nothing is more frustrating than the feeling that every time I fill-up the tank, I am sending my money to people who are trying to kill me, my family, and my friends.
I thought it might be interesting for you to know which oil companies are the best to buy gas from and which major companies import Middle Eastern oil.
These companies import Middle Eastern oil:
Shell……………………… 205,742,000 barrels
Chevron/Texaco……… 144,332,000 barrels
Exxon /Mobil…………… 130,082,000 barrels
Marathon/Speedway… 117,740,000 barrels
Amoco……………………….62,231,000 barrels
Citgo gas is from South America, from a Dictator who hates Americans. If you do the math at $30/barrel, these imports amount to over $18 BILLION! (oil is now $90 – $100 a barrel)
Here are some large companies that do not import Middle Eastern oil:
Sunoco………………0 barrels
Conoco………………0 barrels
Sinclair……………..0 barrels
B P/Phillips…………0 barrels
Hess…………………..0 barrels
ARC0………………..0 barrels
If you go to Sunoco.com, you will get a list of the station locations near you.
All of this information is available from the Department of Energy and each is required to state where they get their oil and how much they are importing.
But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of gas buyers. It’s really simple to do. Now, don’t wimp out at this point…. All you have to do is send this to 10 people. How long would all that take?
