Mortgage Market Review
Provided to you Exclusively by President of The OCD Group Inc. Ernest Tepman
Last Week in Review
“TALENT WITHOUT DISCIPLINE IS LIKE AN OCTOPUS ON ROLLER SKATES. THERE’S PLENTY OF MOVEMENT, BUT YOU NEVER KNOW IF IT’S GOING TO BE FORWARD, BACKWARD, OR SIDEWAYS.” H Jackson Brown Jr. And just like that strange visual of an octopus on skates, so goes the volatile Bond market in recent days – and last week, Bonds and home loan rates skated around, but ultimately closed out the week very close to where they had begun.
Bonds and home loan rates ended the week on a sour note, but had spent the early part of the week moving sideways and slightly higher on a blend of mixed economic news and action in the Stock market. Grim news arrived from insurance giant American International Group (AIG), who reported an enormous first-quarter loss of $7.81 Billion or $3.09 a share, compared with earnings of $4.13 Billion just a year ago. The important part of this loss is due to write-downs on Mortgage Bonds, which tells us that the credit crisis is not yet entirely behind us. On these negative headlines, Stocks moved lower and money flowed over into Bonds, helping home loan rates improve.
By Thursday, Bonds were looking good and holding their ground above several floors of technical support, as the weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers were reported at 365,000, slightly below expectations of 375,000. The more closely watched four-week average of Claims edged higher to 367,500. This not-so-hot read on the labor market helped Bonds and home loan rates continue to improve.
But then on Friday, Bonds gave back some gains on news of oil hitting $126 per barrel – and the inflationary effects of high oil prices is bad news for both Stocks and Bonds. Oil prices are reaching exceptionally high levels, and may get higher still. Read on for where oil prices are forecast to go in the future – and what it means for home loan rates.
AND IT’S NOT JUST FILLING UP THE TANK WHERE YOU’RE SEEING PRICE INCREASES…IT’S WHEN FILLING UP YOUR BELLY AS WELL! THAT’S RIGHT, FOOD AND DRINK PRICES ARE ON THE RISE IN A BIG WAY. CHECK OUT THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR SOME MONEY-SAVING TIPS!
Forecast for the Week
After last week’s thin economic calendar, where Stock market action and technical factors had a big impact on Bonds and home loan rates, this coming week brings a much juicier economic report agenda.
Retail Sales for April will be reported on Tuesday, followed by Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This widely watched measure of consumer inflation will take special significance, now that the Fed has signaled their current rate cutting cycle may be at an end. On Thursday comes a read on the new construction housing market, with Housing Starts and Building Permits. We will have to see if these reports can keep Bonds above their 50- and 100-Day Moving Averages…as seen in the chart below. If the reports are economically weak or negative, Bond prices and home loan rates should hold their ground, and perhaps even find some improvement.
Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower…and vice versa. And right now, there’s an important story breaking that will be very important to stay tuned in to. Last Friday, oil prices reached a lofty $126 a barrel, and Goldman Sachs is forecasting that black gold could rise even higher, perhaps as high as $150 – $200 a barrel in the next twelve months. If they are right, the inflationary effects of high oil prices could pressure Bond prices to move lower, causing home loan rates to move higher. This will be a story to watch carefully in the days and months ahead.
The Mortgage Market View…
RISING PRICES NOT JUST AT THE GAS PUMP…
If you’ve noticed your grocery bill getting bigger lately, you’re not alone – and it’s likely not because you’re eating more. According to Rising Food Prices: Policy Options and World Bank Response, global wheat prices have increased a whopping 181% over the past three years – and overall, food prices have increased by 83%!
Concerned? You’re not alone. A recent poll showed that 73% of consumers cite higher grocery bills as a concern; with nearly half saying food inflation has caused a hardship for their households. In fact, food prices ranked just below record-high gasoline prices on the list of things people are worried about.
According to Gregory Karp, author of Living Rich by Spending Smart, here are three simple ways you can save when it comes to food and drink prices:
Time your grocery shopping. With the exception of milk, eggs, and bread, most grocery store products are put on sale at least once every 12 weeks, as Karp notes, often for “20%-30% their usual price.” So instead of buying what you need every week or two, stock up on non-perishables when they go on sale. It may take a little planning ahead on your part, but the annual savings is substantial. As Karp writes, “The average American family of four spends about $8,500 on groceries each year. Trimming that bill by 20% saves $1,700.”
Make eating out a special treat. Enjoying a nice meal out is always a fun thing to do, so let it be just that, a fun thing to do rather than a solution for being too tired or too rushed to cook. When you do have the time and energy to cook, make two or three times the amount and freeze the extras. Then, when you’re rushed, a home-cooked (and probably healthier) meal will be waiting in your freezer, and will likely take less time to reheat than a night out or take-out delivery. And you will save more than time: According to Karp, “A restaurant meal for two costs $30 even at inexpensive chain restaurants. Home-cooked meals typically cost half as much, if not less. Convert two restaurant trips into two frozen homemade dinners each month, and you will save $360 per year.”
Don’t buy bottled water. Believe it or not, recent tests have shown that bottled water and tap water are pretty equal when it comes to safety and taste. For example, ABC News tested New York City tap water and bottled water for bacteria and found no difference in purity. Plus, there are environmental benefits of using less plastic. Karp estimates that people who drink one $6 case of bottled water each week can save $311 per year if they stop buying bottled water. He notes that “tap water costs five cents per gallon, or less than two cents per equivalent case – about $1 for the year.”
Hey, if you eat…rising food prices impact you. Use the above tips and suggestions to help minimize your concerns about rising food prices, and stay healthy and smart.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Ernest Tepman
President
The OCD Group Inc.
Los Angeles: 800-963-4623
San Diego: 877-863-4623
E-Mail: marketupdate@theocdgroup.com
Gas Savings
We are also paying higher, up to $3.50 per gallon. But my line of work is in petroleum for about 31 years now, so here are some tricks to get more of your money’s worth for every gallon..
Here at the Kinder Morgan Pipeline where I work in San Jose, CA we deliver about 4 million gallons in a 24-hour period thru the pipeline. One day is diesel the next day is jet fuel, and gasoline, regular and premium grades. We have 34-storage tanks here with a total capacity of 16,800,000 gallons.
Only buy or fill up your car or truck in the early morning when the ground temperature is still cold. Remember that all service stations have their storage tanks buried below ground. The colder the ground the more dense the gasoline, when it gets warmer gasoline expands, so buying in the afternoon or in the evening….your gallon is not exactly a gallon. In the petroleum business, the specific gravity and the temperature of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, ethanol and other petroleum products plays an important role. A 1-degree rise in temperature is a big deal for this business. But the service stations do not have temperature compensation at the pumps.
When you’re filling up do not squeeze the trigger of the nozzle to a fast mode. If you look you will see that the trigger has three (3) stages: low, middle, and high. In slow mode you should be pumping on low speed, thereby minimizing the vapors that are created while you are pumping. All hoses at the pump have a vapor return. If you are pumping on the fast rate, some other liquid that goes to your tank becomes vapor. Those vapors are being sucked up and back into the underground storage tank so you’re getting less worth for your money.
One of the most important tips is to fill up when your gas tank is HALF FULL or HALF EMPTY. The reason for this is, the more gas you have in your tank the less air occupying its empty space. Gasoline evaporates faster than you can imagine. Gasoline storage tanks have an internal floating roof. This roof serves as zero clearance between the gas and the atmosphere, so it minimizes the evaporation. Unlike service stations, here where I work, every truck that we load is temperature compensated so that every gallon is actually the exact amount.
Another reminder, if there is a gasoline truck pumping into the storage tanks when you stop to buy gas, DO NOT fill up - most likely the gasoline is being stirred up as the gas is being delivered, and you might pick up some f the dirt that normally settles on the bottom. Hope this will help you get the most value for your money.
DO SHARE THESE TIPS WITH OTHERS!
WHERE TO BUY USA GAS, THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO KNOW. READ ON
Gas rationing in the 80′s worked even though we grumbled about it. It might even be good for us! The Saudis are boycotting American goods. We should return the favor. An interesting thought is to boycott their GAS.
Every time you fill up the car, you can avoid putting more money into the coffers of Saudi Arabia. Just buy from gas companies that don’t import their oil from the Saudis.
Nothing is more frustrating than the feeling that every time I fill-up the tank, I am sending my money to people who are trying to kill me, my family, and my friends.
I thought it might be interesting for you to know which oil companies are the best to buy gas from and which major companies import Middle Eastern oil.
These companies import Middle Eastern oil:
Shell……………………… 205,742,000 barrels
Chevron/Texaco……… 144,332,000 barrels
Exxon /Mobil…………… 130,082,000 barrels
Marathon/Speedway… 117,740,000 barrels
Amoco……………………….62,231,000 barrels
Citgo gas is from South America, from a Dictator who hates Americans. If you do the math at $30/barrel, these imports amount to over $18 BILLION! (oil is now $90 – $100 a barrel)
Here are some large companies that do not import Middle Eastern oil:
Sunoco………………0 barrels
Conoco………………0 barrels
Sinclair……………..0 barrels
B P/Phillips…………0 barrels
Hess…………………..0 barrels
ARC0………………..0 barrels
If you go to Sunoco.com, you will get a list of the station locations near you.
All of this information is available from the Department of Energy and each is required to state where they get their oil and how much they are importing.
But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of gas buyers. It’s really simple to do. Now, don’t wimp out at this point…. All you have to do is send this to 10 people. How long would all that take?
